and was the last time the solar minimum occurred. The winter of 2009-2010 is an example whereby blocking resulted in a cold season across the Eastern Half of the U.S. The pathway for colder-than-normal temperatures (which causes demand for gas) comes from the solar minimum (lack of sunspots), which has increasingly been associated with Arctic blocking events. ![]() “Our confidence this year is lower than previous winter seasons given the mix of signals and lack of a clearer forcing mechanism driving the forecast,” said Harvey. In late-January 2019, when the short-lived Polar Vortex occurred in the Midwest, there was a spike in natural gas prices but it quickly decreased again as the rest of winter came in rather mild. natural gas prices plummeted as a result of the warmth. A colder-than-predicted November was followed by a warmer-than-predicted December and U.S. Last winter, the temperature was volatile and difficult to predict. The forecast this season is near the 30-year normal but significantly higher than the 10-year normal. Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (GWHDDs), a national index to monitor heating demand in the winter season. Maxar’s Weather Desk forecast from December to February totals 2,635 U.S. For the skiing enthusiasts, the slopes in Colorado should have a decent season – especially the middle to latter part of the winter with higher than normal snowfall expected. These factors, combined with seasonal to below normal temperatures, would result in a higher than normal probability for snowstorms to impact the higher population centers of the United States during the heart of winter. Precipitation is also forecast to be above normal for the Middle Atlantic into the Northeast, especially for January and February. Drier than normal conditions are forecast in the Southwest and Southern Plains. in winter, especially in the second half of the season.” -Bradley Harvey, Lead Meteorologist, Maxar TechnologiesĪ fast-flowing airstream will be responsible for directing above normal precipitation into the Northwest and northern Rockies this winter. Historically, the region has been a cold influence for the eastern half of the U.S. This will be a region to watch for enhanced storminess and energy transfer toward the middle latitudes this winter. “One of those factors is just west of the typical El Niño/La Niña monitoring area, near the International Dateline in the tropical Pacific, where waters have been record warm in recent months. Despite this, Maxar’s Weather Desk predicts that other factors may lead to colder temperatures. The equatorial Pacific was in an El Niño state earlier this year but has since cooled to neutral levels and is expected to remain neutral through the winter season. and below normal temperatures along the northern tier of the U.S.Ĭonditions associated with El Niño and La Niña are major drivers of seasonal forecasts, especially for North America. For the heart of winter – December through February – Maxar’s Weather Desk forecast calls for above normal temperatures in the Southwest U.S. East and above normal temperatures for the U.S. ![]() Maxar’s Weather Desk November 2019 forecast is warmer compared to November 2018, with near seasonal temperatures forecast for the U.S. November 2018 started very cold, causing a noticeable increase in heating demand and a sharp uptick in prices, which exceeded $4.50 - an amount greater than the past four years. natural gas future prices last heating season, all eyes in the energy market will be on the upcoming season.
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